Hey everyone, it’s Whatever Wednesdays again. I haven’t talked about crypto for awhile so today we’re going to ponder “Is Crypto Dead? (like for real this time?)”

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Is Crypto Dead (like for real this time?)

Crypto is like Schrödinger’s cat, it’s both alive and dead at the same time.

I haven’t talked about crypto in the last few weeks, because it’s been a bloodbath out there. As I type this Bitcoin is trading at around $3800, XRP at $0.34, and Cardano (ADA) at 3.5 cents. That’s pretty crazy, it’s almost like looking at prices from before “the run up”.

The run-up? Yea.

Let’s go back to September 17, 2017 — when Bitcoin was trading at $3630. On the same day XRP was trading at about $0.18 and Cardano wasn’t even trading publically yet, but started at around 2 cents in October 1, 2017.

So, it’s almost like a 100% retracement and return to September 2017. Pretty interesting stuff.

However, looking at the past does nothing for predicting the future as we are so well aware.

So what now?

Crypto isn’t dead.

I believe the technology is here to stay, it just remains to be seen at just how useful it will actually be.

People like to compare Crypto to the dotcom boom (even me), however, the more I sit back and look at it — they really aren’t the same at all. In fact, that whole boom-bust cycle may not really exist for Crypto in the traditional sense. The more and more I think about it, the more and more I think that these small boom-bust cycles are keeping crypto in check until it matures. I am unsure if there are outside forces at work, but I don’t see these boom-bust cycles going anywhere anytime soon.

Additionally, I don’t see crypto maturing for at least 5 more years. Only then will we see if there is long term value to be had.

Did you sell your crypto?

No –  and I don’t really plan to.

Remember that I don’t have much money in crypto at all. For me, it all started as an experiment, mostly to force me to learn more about cryptocurrency in general. I’ve learned a lot about it and I still believe that the technology has a myriad of applications — it will just take some time to mature. That said, after “picking my horses” I don’t really follow the day-to-day price it is trading at. The way I see it, it was money I could afford to lose, so I placed my bets.

When all is said and done for crypto, I will have a great story about it whether I made any money or not. The truth is, whether I was down or up, I had so little in cryptocurrency that wouldn’t change my life.

So why then?

To learn.

I wanted to understand what made cryptocurrency interesting and a potentially valuable paradigm shift. I remember when I was kid and the “internet” and “world wide web” was a thing, and I knew all about it and was very aware of what was going on. I picked it up quickly and understood it. My father, who was working a lot needed my help to understand how the internet worked and how to do things. Now then, I’m not some 12 year old kid anymore with a ton of time on my hands to learn things.

Even so, I believe that cryptocurrency is important enough to understand and learn about. It will be something my children should try to understand, and why I try to explain the concepts to my daughter. Even if the technology doesn’t quite mature as we want, I think it will give rise to a 2nd generation or even a 3rd generation which will eventually succeed in my lifetime.

More importantly, the way of thinking of cryptocurrency is fundamentally different than how things are currently. For generations, everything has always been “trust the bank” and every bank has harped on placing their trust in them and being FDIC insured, etc.

Cryptocurrency is completely different:  “Don’t trust me, trust the math.”

This a very difficult thing to ask for, especially for older generations. However, I think this idea of “trustlessness” is where we are headed — I just don’t know when.

TL;DR

Crypto is like Schrödinger’s cat, it’s both alive and dead at the same time.

I don’t think crypto is dead — it kind of just reset, again.

Boom-bust cycles are, and will continue to be the way of crypto, until it matures.

I see this happening for at least another 5 years.

However, I must remind you, cryptocurrency is gambling.

Only invest what you can afford to lose.

Every bust in the repeating boom-bust cycles is a reminder of this.

-Sensei

Agree? Disagree? Questions, Comments and Suggestions are welcome.

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