Hey everyone, it’s Whatever Wednesdays again. Lots of movement lately in the crypto market and a lot new stuff on the horizon. So then “Are We Bull or Bear?”
Are We Bull or Bear?
For those who don’t know, a “bull market” is when everything is going up and a “bear market” is when everything is going down. This is kind of an oversimplification, but that’s the basically what it means. In a more general sense, it’s the market sentiment and can be also considered as market optimism versus pessimism.
Early this year we saw a pretty significant crash with a mild recovery and then seemingly sideways movement. In this sideways movement we’ve seen some areas of small pumps and corrections. However, the question is “Have we corrected enough yet?” I think everyone is waiting in anticipation for the “next run up”, that everyone thinks will come. Then there is the elephant in the room of the “big institutional investors” getting into crypto soon.
There are rumors of market manipulation to keep the market suppressed while institutional investors and other big shots buy up crypto in the background. Is this true? Who knows.
However, this year has been hyped pretty heavily as the “Year of Crypto” when crypto would go mainstream — and that hasn’t really happened. Like I’ve said before, I still think we’re much too soon for mainstream and nowhere close to seeing Mass Adoption.
So… what do you think?
My prediction/forecast for the future hasn’t changed from my previous Quora Answer here:
Ethereum is currently trading at ~$561, and it’s previous all-time-high was $1538. So it’s still down ~63% from it’s all-time-high.
Has anything really changed for Ethereum? Not really.
It continues down the path of wanting to eventually move to Proof of Stake (Casper FFG) with plans for Plasma and/or Sharding. ICOs being built on Ethereum using the ERC20 token has decreased, but that’s just because ICOs have decreased in general.
All things considered, I think Ethereum has a good chance of getting back to at least its all-time-high over a reasonable arc of time. That’s about a 3x return. Not bad.
Ripple is currently trading at ~$0.59, and it’s previous all-time-high was $3.92. So it’s still down ~85% from it’s all-time-high.
Ripple has continued to add to its portfolio of partners. It has also brought back plans for its Codius platform. Trials of XRP have continued. Nothing has changed in their roadmap. If/when we see real world use of XRP, I would expect to see an increase in price.
If Ripple continues to deliver and secure real world use of XRP, I think it can get back to it’s all-time-high of $3.92. If so, you’re looking at a 6x return.
Cardano is currently trading at ~$0.20, and it’s previous all-time-high was $1.37. So it’s still down ~85% from it’s all-time-high as well.
Cardano continues to deliver on its roadmap with the launch of two testnets (KEVM and IELE). Delegation and Stakepools will go into a “beta test” period soon. I think we can expect staking and smart contracts development by the end of 2018. Ledger integration will also be available by year’s end as well, with plans to allow for cold staking.
If Cardano can deliver on its roadmap and secure good developers, it has a good chance to get back to it’s all-time-high of $1.37. If so, you’re looking at almost a 7x return.
Sounds pretty good. But can’t they go lower?
Of course. This is crypto. Anything could go to zero.
The above projects I think are very unlikely to go to zero given their strong teams, support, and financial backing. However, nothing is invincible in the crypto wild west. In the event of a true crash, anything could go to zero. Nonetheless, the technology is there. Something will remain after the crash as long as it provides value.
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful” – Warren Buffett
He probably wouldn’t like me quoting him when I’m referring to crypto, since he doesn’t like it. However, the wisdom of what he is saying is still true here.
So, wait… Are We Bull or Bear?
I’ll do a followup to this post at the end of the year and see where we are at that time.
Are We Bull or Bear? Yes. (Both)
I still believe Ethereum, Ripple, and Cardano have good fundamentals for long term gains.
That said, anything in crypto can go to zero.
Crypto is gambling. Only invest what you can afford to lose.
Agree? Disagree? Questions, Comments and Suggestions are welcome.
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